Rally Bulls shake out in markets as all Indicies sink in with the historic lows in the USD and new multi year highs in some currencies. Sentiment has turned against USD and feeding frenzy continues.
Some target supports and resistances seem to have been satisfied in EUR and YEN and carry trade pairs EURYEN and GBPJPY look well supported as well. Weekend should bring some calm and routine reversal / retracements to all the markets hopefully.
Volatility has shot up above 25 level and touching the wedge bottom and hopefully should scale down from here. That should mean Rally will be back soon or all hell will break lose in Stcok markets. It is all wait and watch from here, as either direction has equal chance.
We closed our reversal short trade in AAPL with 20% profit limit in a day. No more open positions in stocks except two Index positions in $OEX and SPY. Also scaling out as time to get ready for a much anticipated mid March hot break to Carribean Island Peurto Plata in Dominican Republic, a gift from my lovely boys and a surprise trip for my lovely wife ( she never reads this blog as far as I know )
2008 Project M .. TRADE # 20: AAPL
Feb 28, 2008 AAPL Buy Mar 130 Put $ 5.00 .. 2 Contracts
Feb 29, 2008 AAPL Sell Mar 130 Put $ 6.00 .. 2 Contracts
Time: 1 Day
Return: 20 % or $ 200.00
Account Value: $ 9,464.90
Enjoy the weekend please.
Harry
Friday, February 29, 2008
Thursday, February 28, 2008
AAPL Reversal, $OEX and SPY
Negative all across after comments from FED chief about the economy. Forex markets had another down day for US Dollor as $DXY sunk further as new HIGHS were made against USD in EUR, CHF, AUD and NZD pairs. What a powerful negative show of sentiment against the USD while FED Chief was on air.
AAPL had a great reversal from the bottom seen just three days ago. And we have our first losing trade since we started trade by trade journal on this blog.
2008 Project M .. TRADE # 11: AAPL
Feb 04, 2008 AAPL Buy Mar 140 Call $ 1.66 .. 20 Contracts
Feb 28, 2008 AAPL Sell Mar 140 Call $ 1.57 .. 20 Contracts
Time: 24 Days
Return: (- ) 5.39 % or $ 179.00
Account Value: $ 9,264.90
We closed our Long trade in AAPL with a small loss and opened another short term reversal trade in same security. Another trade was opened in Index SPY and $OEX is still open.
Volatility has returned a bit with the FED chief in the hot seat all day. Tomorrow is the last day of the month and that adds to same as some position squaring always happens.
Happy trading.
Harry
AAPL had a great reversal from the bottom seen just three days ago. And we have our first losing trade since we started trade by trade journal on this blog.
2008 Project M .. TRADE # 11: AAPL
Feb 04, 2008 AAPL Buy Mar 140 Call $ 1.66 .. 20 Contracts
Feb 28, 2008 AAPL Sell Mar 140 Call $ 1.57 .. 20 Contracts
Time: 24 Days
Return: (- ) 5.39 % or $ 179.00
Account Value: $ 9,264.90
We closed our Long trade in AAPL with a small loss and opened another short term reversal trade in same security. Another trade was opened in Index SPY and $OEX is still open.
Volatility has returned a bit with the FED chief in the hot seat all day. Tomorrow is the last day of the month and that adds to same as some position squaring always happens.
Happy trading.
Harry
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
GOOG, AAPL and $ OEX
Stock Market Rally continues while USD is getting annihilated in Forex Markets.
$DXY gapped open lower at 74.429 and staying under previous low of November 23 2007. This action is very confusing in view of FED remarks about Inflation worries and markets continuing interpretation of further rate cut expectations. This sure has reflected well for Gold bulls.
We opened a new trade in GOOG yesterday, after the downgrade and caught a bit of a rally here.
2008 Project M .. TRADE # 18: GOOG
Feb 26, 2008 GOOG Buy Apr 560 Call $ 3.20 .. 1 Contract
Feb 27, 2008 GOOG Sell Apr 560 Call $ 4.10 .. 1 Contract
Time: 1 Day
Return: 21.87 % or $90.00
Account Value: $ 9,443.90
Good day ahead.
Harry
$DXY gapped open lower at 74.429 and staying under previous low of November 23 2007. This action is very confusing in view of FED remarks about Inflation worries and markets continuing interpretation of further rate cut expectations. This sure has reflected well for Gold bulls.
We opened a new trade in GOOG yesterday, after the downgrade and caught a bit of a rally here.
2008 Project M .. TRADE # 18: GOOG
Feb 26, 2008 GOOG Buy Apr 560 Call $ 3.20 .. 1 Contract
Feb 27, 2008 GOOG Sell Apr 560 Call $ 4.10 .. 1 Contract
Time: 1 Day
Return: 21.87 % or $90.00
Account Value: $ 9,443.90
Good day ahead.
Harry
Monday, February 25, 2008
AAA for NOW ... Targets for DOW, NSDQ, $SPX, $OEX.
Verdict is " AAA " for now.
ABK and MBIA ratings got reaffirmed and that helped push markets up. This further reaffirms and confirms our expected test of major Resistances ( Supports before the free fall of January )
For DOW our targets are :: 12894, 13233, 13651 and 13657.
For $SPX our targets are :: 1420, 1461, 1510 and 1512.
For NSDQ our targets are :: 2538, 2629, 2720 and 2729.
For $OEX our targets are :: 664, 683, 704 and 707.
AAPL and $OEX trades are open and under close watch due to March Expiry.
Happy trading.
Harry
ABK and MBIA ratings got reaffirmed and that helped push markets up. This further reaffirms and confirms our expected test of major Resistances ( Supports before the free fall of January )
For DOW our targets are :: 12894, 13233, 13651 and 13657.
For $SPX our targets are :: 1420, 1461, 1510 and 1512.
For NSDQ our targets are :: 2538, 2629, 2720 and 2729.
For $OEX our targets are :: 664, 683, 704 and 707.
AAPL and $OEX trades are open and under close watch due to March Expiry.
Happy trading.
Harry
Friday, February 22, 2008
ALL GREEN at end of Friday and AAPL and $OEX
Impressive comeback end of Friday as all Indices surge back up and end in GREEN. Dow closed up around 225 points off it lows in the last hour of session. Same kind of bounce back in $SPX and Nasdaq came back a bit as well, having fallen in technical BEAR MARKET territory during the session.
Expected AMBAC bail out by Banks next week is the clue here and hopefully that story helps shake out fears about and avoid deeper credit problems in the markets at this time. Rally ahead will depend on confirmation of above rescue early next week.
Inflation and Stagflation are the new buzz words floating around everywhere.
Let us wait and watch the rally play out.
Have a great weekend.
Harry
Expected AMBAC bail out by Banks next week is the clue here and hopefully that story helps shake out fears about and avoid deeper credit problems in the markets at this time. Rally ahead will depend on confirmation of above rescue early next week.
Inflation and Stagflation are the new buzz words floating around everywhere.
Let us wait and watch the rally play out.
Have a great weekend.
Harry
Thursday, February 21, 2008
RIMM EXPLODES and AAPL, $OEX on watch
Market rally got some strength yesterday as all Indices moved up with stronger volume then we have seen last couple of days, and right after the FOMC minutes were out. Test of resistances overhead is imminent.
Frustrating but real life situation here ... our outage in Telephone and Internet is ongoing. Amazing how irresponsible and inefficient service providers are in technologically advanced market place.
We are pleased to open and close another trade in our darling security RIMM which exploded to the upside this morning on Black Berry guidance news.
2008 Project M .. TRADE # 17: RIMM
Feb 15, 2008 RIMM Buy Mar 103.375 Call $ 2.210 .. 3 Contracts
Feb 21, 2008 RIMM Sell Mar 103.375 Call $ 9.283 .. 3 Contracts
Time: 6 Days
Return: Drum Rollllll pls ..... 419.90 % or $2121.00
Account Value: $ 9,373.00
Without Telephone and Internet services, we are really handicapped but this has been an amzing gift for the loss and waste of time otherwise. With this, Rimmm has reached our upside target price and should consolidate or drop down from here a bit. We will watch and pray for services to be restored.
Other trades in AAPL and $OEX are also being watched closely.
Good day ahead.
Harry
Frustrating but real life situation here ... our outage in Telephone and Internet is ongoing. Amazing how irresponsible and inefficient service providers are in technologically advanced market place.
We are pleased to open and close another trade in our darling security RIMM which exploded to the upside this morning on Black Berry guidance news.
2008 Project M .. TRADE # 17: RIMM
Feb 15, 2008 RIMM Buy Mar 103.375 Call $ 2.210 .. 3 Contracts
Feb 21, 2008 RIMM Sell Mar 103.375 Call $ 9.283 .. 3 Contracts
Time: 6 Days
Return: Drum Rollllll pls ..... 419.90 % or $2121.00
Account Value: $ 9,373.00
Without Telephone and Internet services, we are really handicapped but this has been an amzing gift for the loss and waste of time otherwise. With this, Rimmm has reached our upside target price and should consolidate or drop down from here a bit. We will watch and pray for services to be restored.
Other trades in AAPL and $OEX are also being watched closely.
Good day ahead.
Harry
Friday, February 15, 2008
MMM, AAPL and $OEX Trades
Market rally is getting sold off ahead of three days break ( Monday is a Holiday in North American markets ).
Incapacitated by Internet and Telephone Service outages, our break in trading is extended one and likely end middle of next week sometime.
We have somehow managed to open and close another trade in MMM while remote watching our open trades. We still await a full blown rally that we feel is necassary and waiting to happen, for confirmation of long term trend breaks in January that shocked and rocked many participants out of the markets.
2008 Project M .. TRADE # 16: MMM
Feb 13, 2008 MMM Buy Mar 80 Call $ 2.20 .. 2 Contracts
Feb 15, 2008 MMM Sell Mar 80 Call $ 2.50 .. 2 Contracts
Time: 2 Days
Return: 13.63 % or $60.00
Account Value: $ 7,252.00
Enjoy the long weekend ... Feel Blessed for everything, review all your positions and rest well to trade safe. Always remember that market participants usually re-evaluate and many a times new positions and directions are initiated right after these brief breaks.
Harry
Incapacitated by Internet and Telephone Service outages, our break in trading is extended one and likely end middle of next week sometime.
We have somehow managed to open and close another trade in MMM while remote watching our open trades. We still await a full blown rally that we feel is necassary and waiting to happen, for confirmation of long term trend breaks in January that shocked and rocked many participants out of the markets.
2008 Project M .. TRADE # 16: MMM
Feb 13, 2008 MMM Buy Mar 80 Call $ 2.20 .. 2 Contracts
Feb 15, 2008 MMM Sell Mar 80 Call $ 2.50 .. 2 Contracts
Time: 2 Days
Return: 13.63 % or $60.00
Account Value: $ 7,252.00
Enjoy the long weekend ... Feel Blessed for everything, review all your positions and rest well to trade safe. Always remember that market participants usually re-evaluate and many a times new positions and directions are initiated right after these brief breaks.
Harry
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
AAPL, $OEX and Internet Service Interruption
Markets are trying get back up slowly and we are watching our trades in AAPL and $OEX. Rally has been slow but steady and we still feel this is a BEAR MARKET rally and we have further downside coming.
Toronto, where we are located, has had over 50 Cms of snow past two weeks. As long as you do not have to shovel the snow from your drive ways and clear your side walks, it looks so pretty and scenic everywhere.
We are enjoying the natural beauty, more so, as we have a situation here and our Internet as well as Telephone services are severely interrupted. As such Blog updates and trading activity has automatically slowed down. Amazing how much we rely and depend on Internet and how lost, business wise, we feel when we are cut off.
Stay warm and stay tuned.
Harry
Toronto, where we are located, has had over 50 Cms of snow past two weeks. As long as you do not have to shovel the snow from your drive ways and clear your side walks, it looks so pretty and scenic everywhere.
We are enjoying the natural beauty, more so, as we have a situation here and our Internet as well as Telephone services are severely interrupted. As such Blog updates and trading activity has automatically slowed down. Amazing how much we rely and depend on Internet and how lost, business wise, we feel when we are cut off.
Stay warm and stay tuned.
Harry
Monday, February 11, 2008
Wobbly Wobbly ... Rally that is and RIMM, FDG Closed
Markets have opened on a weak note, on marked weakness in EUR YEN and GBP YEN overnight due to strength in YEN. However, that brings all Indices as well as Carry trades to Fibonachi supports or wave b of abc rally. This will help shake out all weak Bullish participants, assuming this is still a rally in the overall Bearish down move.
Many stocks have GAP opened and that usually means Market Makers will have fun filled swing ride. Using this opening strength, we closed our trades in RIMM and FDG.
2008 Project M .. TRADE # 09: RIMM
Feb 04, 2008 09:50:01 RIMM Buy Mar 100 Call $ 3.58 .. 4 Contracts
Feb 11, 2008 09:55:42 RIMM Sell Mar 100 Call $ 4.00 .. 4 Contracts
Time: 8 Days
Return: 11.73 % or $168.00
2008 Project M .. TRADE # 15: FDG
Feb 08, 2008 10:24:38 FDG Buy Mar 45 Call $ 3.70 .. 1 Contract
Feb 11, 2008 09:55:46 FDG Sell Mar 45 Call $ 4.10 .. 1 Contract
Time: 1 Day ( Weekend Overnight trade )
Return: 10.81 % or $40.00
Account Value: $ 7,192.00
Good Day
Harry
Many stocks have GAP opened and that usually means Market Makers will have fun filled swing ride. Using this opening strength, we closed our trades in RIMM and FDG.
2008 Project M .. TRADE # 09: RIMM
Feb 04, 2008 09:50:01 RIMM Buy Mar 100 Call $ 3.58 .. 4 Contracts
Feb 11, 2008 09:55:42 RIMM Sell Mar 100 Call $ 4.00 .. 4 Contracts
Time: 8 Days
Return: 11.73 % or $168.00
2008 Project M .. TRADE # 15: FDG
Feb 08, 2008 10:24:38 FDG Buy Mar 45 Call $ 3.70 .. 1 Contract
Feb 11, 2008 09:55:46 FDG Sell Mar 45 Call $ 4.10 .. 1 Contract
Time: 1 Day ( Weekend Overnight trade )
Return: 10.81 % or $40.00
Account Value: $ 7,192.00
Good Day
Harry
Saturday, February 9, 2008
COAL is NEW GOLD - FDG, FCL and ACI
Markets continued spinning all day Friday at Supports and bulls were stressed all day long. However, in the last 2 hours some serious buying happened and most stocks rallied. Apple and RIMM both rallied nearly $4.50 each, all Indexes seem like well supported into the weekend and G7 meeting during this weekend may help further this Rally.
Up coming week is Option expiry week and there could be usual fireworks around. We will be watching Resistances here on with bated breadth as this Rally could end very abruptly.
Markets are overall very stressed as Credit crisis is simply getting worse by the day, Consumers are exhausted, Credit Spreads are getting really dangerous, and Unemployment is a very serious concern.
Trying trade BEAR RALLY is like catching a Falling knife and you can imagine and visualise the consequences of that exercise. This a time to be very aware of market internals and watch them closely. Markets could turn on a dime any moment.
Coal stocks have become new Gold of the times and most Coal stocks have rallied almost like 40 to 50% in the past couple of weeks. There should be a pull back very soon but worth keeping an eye on all of them.
We have taken a position in one of them and FDG is our 15th trade of 2008 Project M.
Weekend before Option expiry is always a working weekend besides family and fun.
Have a great time.
Harry
Up coming week is Option expiry week and there could be usual fireworks around. We will be watching Resistances here on with bated breadth as this Rally could end very abruptly.
Markets are overall very stressed as Credit crisis is simply getting worse by the day, Consumers are exhausted, Credit Spreads are getting really dangerous, and Unemployment is a very serious concern.
Trying trade BEAR RALLY is like catching a Falling knife and you can imagine and visualise the consequences of that exercise. This a time to be very aware of market internals and watch them closely. Markets could turn on a dime any moment.
Coal stocks have become new Gold of the times and most Coal stocks have rallied almost like 40 to 50% in the past couple of weeks. There should be a pull back very soon but worth keeping an eye on all of them.
We have taken a position in one of them and FDG is our 15th trade of 2008 Project M.
Weekend before Option expiry is always a working weekend besides family and fun.
Have a great time.
Harry
Thursday, February 7, 2008
CME, ICE, AAPL and RIMM
Markets are churning away. Volatility is mind numbing and our rally got stalled, mainly due to stocks like CME, ICE, AAPL and RIMM. Down one day and Up next day.
CME's drop of $103.55 yesterday and gain of $42.76 today was a killer of a move and anyone in the right direction would be done a years worth of profits in two short days.
Market action back up today, however slight that was, looks promising as all the supports are intact and rally should gain strength with The House and Senate approval of $170 Billions Rebate programme ( increased from $150 Billions before ), aimed at spurring the economy.
We took advantage of weakness yesterday to buy some additional lots in our current holdings.
Happy trading and sleep well.
Harry
CME's drop of $103.55 yesterday and gain of $42.76 today was a killer of a move and anyone in the right direction would be done a years worth of profits in two short days.
Market action back up today, however slight that was, looks promising as all the supports are intact and rally should gain strength with The House and Senate approval of $170 Billions Rebate programme ( increased from $150 Billions before ), aimed at spurring the economy.
We took advantage of weakness yesterday to buy some additional lots in our current holdings.
Happy trading and sleep well.
Harry
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
$OEX, RIMM, AAPL, FMCN and EWZ
Markets got slammed yesterday. Dow down 370 points had biggest percentage drop in almost a year. Volatility is here to stay and traders love that. ISM was 2nd worst ever and that sounds like a full blown recession ahead.
Market drop has swung us back into support areas and we will likely go for test of resistance areas. This scenerio should lead us into higher prices for next couple of days as carry trades are also bouncing off 62% retracements of last up move from January 22nd lows. Technicals still paint this as a BEAR MARKET rally and we should stay wide awake.
We have taken two additional trades ( FMCN and Brazil shares ETF EWZ ) in the final minutes of closing yesterday. Busy day ahead and we have all our trades LONG to capitalise the rally.
Good day.
Harry
11:40 AM. We have closed two trades taken in the final minutes of closing yesterday. Please see details here under::
2008 Project MERCEDES .. TRADE # 13: FMCN (Long ..reverse trade of yesterday)
Feb 05, 2008 15:21:14 FMCN Buy Mar 45 Call $ 5.30 .. 2 Contracts
Feb 06, 2008 11:30:23 FMCN Sell Mar 45 Call $ 6.30 .. 2 Contracts
Time: 3 Hours ( Overnight trade )
Return: 18.87 % or $200.00
2008 Project MERCEDES .. TRADE # 14: Brazil Etf EWZ
Feb 05, 2008 15:38:49 EWZ Buy Mar 75 Call $ 4.90 .. 2 Contracts
Feb 06, 2008 11:32:53 EWZ Sell Mar 75 Call $ 5.50 .. 2 Contracts
Time: 3 Hours ( Overnight trade )
Return: 12.24 % or $120.00
Account Value: $ 6,984.00
Stay tuned please.
Market drop has swung us back into support areas and we will likely go for test of resistance areas. This scenerio should lead us into higher prices for next couple of days as carry trades are also bouncing off 62% retracements of last up move from January 22nd lows. Technicals still paint this as a BEAR MARKET rally and we should stay wide awake.
We have taken two additional trades ( FMCN and Brazil shares ETF EWZ ) in the final minutes of closing yesterday. Busy day ahead and we have all our trades LONG to capitalise the rally.
Good day.
Harry
11:40 AM. We have closed two trades taken in the final minutes of closing yesterday. Please see details here under::
2008 Project MERCEDES .. TRADE # 13: FMCN (Long ..reverse trade of yesterday)
Feb 05, 2008 15:21:14 FMCN Buy Mar 45 Call $ 5.30 .. 2 Contracts
Feb 06, 2008 11:30:23 FMCN Sell Mar 45 Call $ 6.30 .. 2 Contracts
Time: 3 Hours ( Overnight trade )
Return: 18.87 % or $200.00
2008 Project MERCEDES .. TRADE # 14: Brazil Etf EWZ
Feb 05, 2008 15:38:49 EWZ Buy Mar 75 Call $ 4.90 .. 2 Contracts
Feb 06, 2008 11:32:53 EWZ Sell Mar 75 Call $ 5.50 .. 2 Contracts
Time: 3 Hours ( Overnight trade )
Return: 12.24 % or $120.00
Account Value: $ 6,984.00
Stay tuned please.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
$OEX, RIMM and AAPL
ISM reports were released earlier then scheduled, before the market open and that in itself is something to think about. Reports were way under the market expectations and participants managed to digest the news without too much fear and emotions. Another original way to support the markets and seems FED and so called or rumoured Plunge Protection Teams are doing everything to avoid the free fall.
Markets GAP opened lower and likely bouncing off expected supports levels.
We closed our FMCN trade and opened another in main market index $OEX (Trade # 12)
2008 Project MERCEDES .. TRADE # 10: FMCN
Feb 04, 2008 10:00:59 FMCN Buy Mar 50 Put $ 5.70 .. 2 Contracts
Feb 05, 2008 11:11:43 FMCN Sell Mar 50 Put $ 6.20 .. 2 Contracts
Time: 1 Day
Return: 8.87 % or $100.00
Account Value: $ 6664.00
Good day.
Harry
Markets GAP opened lower and likely bouncing off expected supports levels.
We closed our FMCN trade and opened another in main market index $OEX (Trade # 12)
2008 Project MERCEDES .. TRADE # 10: FMCN
Feb 04, 2008 10:00:59 FMCN Buy Mar 50 Put $ 5.70 .. 2 Contracts
Feb 05, 2008 11:11:43 FMCN Sell Mar 50 Put $ 6.20 .. 2 Contracts
Time: 1 Day
Return: 8.87 % or $100.00
Account Value: $ 6664.00
Good day.
Harry
Monday, February 4, 2008
RIMM, FMCN and AAPL
MSFT YAHOO takeover bid has reinforced the Rally and world markets all over bounced back Monday. Risk appetite has improved a bit and carry trades have lead to upswings in EURYEN and GBPJPY overnight.
Inspite of very poor NON FARM numbers Friday, US Dollor has garnered strength and Gold is down testing supports. Indexes are all within reach of testing resistances. $VIX is right at the top of wedge and likely falling down and headed for 20.72 ( 200 MVA )
Economic calendar this week is almost devoid of any market moving numbers.
We have opened two new trades this morning ..... our favourite RIMM and FMCN (Trades # 9 and 10 of 2008 Project M)
Good Luck ahead.
Harry
14:50 Afternoon: We have opened another trade in AAPL ( Trade # 11 ). Markets are direction less and vibrating away, looking for any clues from the ongoing Subprime and ABCP saga.
Inspite of very poor NON FARM numbers Friday, US Dollor has garnered strength and Gold is down testing supports. Indexes are all within reach of testing resistances. $VIX is right at the top of wedge and likely falling down and headed for 20.72 ( 200 MVA )
Economic calendar this week is almost devoid of any market moving numbers.
We have opened two new trades this morning ..... our favourite RIMM and FMCN (Trades # 9 and 10 of 2008 Project M)
Good Luck ahead.
Harry
14:50 Afternoon: We have opened another trade in AAPL ( Trade # 11 ). Markets are direction less and vibrating away, looking for any clues from the ongoing Subprime and ABCP saga.
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